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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration
fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend
through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical
fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as
an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the
Pacific Coast.

...Southern CA...
Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are
forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the
new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a
large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the
Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great
Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off.
Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff
low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various
solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough
upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong
low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity
should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily
intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for
another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical
fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA
Mountains.

Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early
D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In co*bination
with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph
are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor
humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass.
Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong
winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the
potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the
western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday.

Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low
gradually moves offshore and winds aloft beco*e more southeasterly.
This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored
corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may
persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as
late as D6/Thursday.

..Lyons.. 01/11/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...