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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe thunderstorm
threats late this afternoon and evening across eastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin.

...MN and vicinity late this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel trough with embedded speed maxima over ND/eastern MT this
morning will progress southeastward to MN by this evening, along
with an associated surface cold front now in the central Dakotas.  A
corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s precedes the cold
front, beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km.  Surface heating in
cloud breaks west of morning convection will allow MLCAPE to
increase to 1500-2500 J/kg as convective inhibition is largely
eliminated by late afternoon along the front.

A broken band of storms is expected to form along or just ahead of
the cold front by about 22-00z, with greater uncertainty with
southward extent regarding storm coverage into IA/eastern NE.  The
environment will conditionally support supercells capable of
producing large hail up to 1.75 inch diameter and damaging
thunderstorm gusts of 60-70 mph.  Temperature-dewpoint spreads will
be marginally large, but low-level hodograph curvature/SRH could be
sufficient for an isolated tornado or two.  The severe threat should
diminish by roughly 03z as the boundary layer cools and convective
inhibition likewise increases. 

...NC/southern VA this afternoon through late evening...
A weak baroclinic zone across central NC this morning will drift
northward toward southern VA by late afternoon, in advance of a
midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward from the lower OH Valley
toward the Mid-Atlantic.  The southern fringe of the modestly
stronger midlevel westerlies (represented by effective bulk shear
near 30 kt) will overlie the baroclinic zone, where there will be
some enhancement to low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH a
little over 100 m2/s2).  Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, a mix of
multicell clusters and transient supercells are expected along the
front this afternoon, and storms will spread eastern near the NC/VA
border through late evening.  Isolated wind damage with water-loaded
downdrafts, and perhaps a brief/weak tornado or two, will be
possible.  

...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening...
A series of subtle vorticity maxima are moving generally westward in
the easterly flow regime to the south of the midlevel ridge
extending from northern NV to west TX.  One such perturbation is
moving across Sonora this morning, with substantial midlevel drying
approaching southeast AZ in its wake.  The midlevel drying and
reduction in clouds will aid surface heating, but also casts some
doubt on how widespread convection will be away from the higher
terrain in southeast AZ.  Assuming a couple of storm clusters form
during the afternoon, surface heating/mixing should be sufficient
for inverted-v profiles in the low levels (despite slightly below
normal surface temperatures), and east-southeasterly midlevel flow
near 20 kt will help storms move toward the lower deserts on locally
strong outflow.

..Thompson/Kerr.. 07/31/2022