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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to
move across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. The front should
reach the Northeast on Thursday. Pockets of moderate instability
will be possible each afternoon along and ahead of the front. As
surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will be possible
on Wednesday in the southern and eastern Great Lakes, and in the
central and northern Appalachians on Thursday. Although forecast
instability and shear appear to be sufficient for an isolated severe
threat each day, the greater threat could be on Wednesday in the
Great Lakes, where the models are in better agreement concerning
instability. If moderate instability does materialize on Wednesday
in Wisconsin and Lower Michigan, as some solutions suggest, then an
isolated severe threat would be possible in the late afternoon and
early evening.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
Over the weekend, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build across
the central U.S. Mid-level flow to the north of the ridge is
forecast to be west-southwesterly across much of the Upper Midwest.
Although moisture return should take place in the north-central
states on Friday and Saturday, the models suggest that instability
will remain relatively weak. Although an isolated severe threat will
be possible in areas that heat up the most each afternoon, model
solutions do not favor any day over another concerning the severe
potential. At this time, forecasts in the north-central states
suggest that any severe threat would remain marginal, and have a
substantial amount of conditionality.