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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and evening. Other
more isolated severe storms could also occur across parts of North
Carolina into southern Virginia, southern Arizona, and Nebraska into
Iowa.

...MN/WI into IA/NE...

A shortwave upper trough will progress eastward across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity today and tonight. A belt of
enhanced mid/upper west/northwesterly flow associated with this
feature will overspread the region atop south/southwesterly
low-level flow. This will provide modest effective shear, supporting
organized thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon ahead of
an eastward-advancing cold front. Dewpoints in the 60s F and at
least pockets of stronger heating amid modestly steep midlevel lapse
rates will contribute to MLCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg. There
is some concern over morning showers and cloud cover resulting in
lingering boundary-layer inhibition. Nevertheless, as ascent
increases with the approach of the surface cold front, widely
scattered storms are expected to develop. Large hail and strong
gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. However, adequate
deep layer shear and increasing, favorably curved low-level
hodographs could support a tornado with any persistent, discrete
convection. 

More isolated convection is possible along the southern extent of
the cold front into IA and NE where strong heating of a very moist
airmass will occur. Weaker vertical shear and more limited
large-scale ascent should limit coverage and perhaps longevity of
any strong to severe storms that develop, though strong gusts and
hail are still possible.

...NC into southern VA...

A subtle shortwave impulse will migrate across the central
Appalachians this afternoon. At the surface, a warm front is
forecast to lift northward into southern VA. South of the front, 60s
to low 70s F surface dewpoints will contribute to moderate/strong
destabilization. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but
high PW values near 2 inches may aid in sporadic wet microbursts.
Closer to the warm front, backed low-level winds will contribute to
enhanced shear. Forecast soundings show enlarged, curved low-level
hodographs and transient rotating cells may pose a somewhat greater
risk for strong gusts or perhaps a tornado. 

...Southern AZ...

An upper ridge will build westward across the Four Corners into the
Great Basin, allowing some modestly increasing east/southeasterly
deep-layer flow to overspread the region. While some concerns over
lingering cloud cover and impacts from the prior day's convection
remain, consistency among deterministic and ensemble guidance in
addition to the CAMs and machine learning probabilistic output
suggest some threat for strong gusts will develop. Forecast
soundings near TUS show steep low-level lapse rates with low/mid 60s
F dewpoints and around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This should support strong
outflow winds with stronger cells and a Marginal risk has been
included.

..Leitman/Squitieri.. 07/31/2022