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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will
be possible on Monday from the central Plains into the mid
Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes.

...Northern Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region on
Monday, as northwest mid-level flow beco*es established across the
central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance
east-southeastward into the mid Mississippi valley and lower Great
Lakes. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s F should result in moderate instability by afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of
the front, with these storms moving east-southeastward across the
northern Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. NAM forecast soundings
along the instability axis for 00Z/Tuesday generally have 0-6 km
shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This co*bined with steep low-level
lapse rates should be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat
during the late afternoon.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
West northwest mid-level flow will beco*e established across the
central U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture will be located from north-central Missouri
extending northwestward into north-central Nebraska. Surface heating
along with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Isolated thunderstorms
are forecast to develop along and near the instability axis during
the mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings have MLCAPE peaking in
the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot
range.  This should be enough for marginally severe winds and hail.
However, warm air aloft should temper the threats somewhat.

..Broyles.. 07/31/2022