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Mesoscale Discussion 1618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Areas affected...much of North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302252Z - 310045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple bouts of severe hail/wind may briefly acco*pany
one of the stronger storms at peak intensity. A WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A 500 mb vort max overspreading the northern Plains, in
tandem with peak heating, has supported convective initiation across
central ND near a differential moist boundary. Meanwhile, strong
thunderstorms have organized immediately ahead of a cold front
across far southeast SK and these storms may graze far northwest ND
over the next few hours. A seasonably moist and unstable warm sector
resides ahead of these storms, with upper 60s F dewpoints and 9+
C/km 0-3km lapse rates contributing to 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE. While this
thermodynamic profile would support a severe hail/wind threat with
organized thunderstorms, deep-layer shear is quite weak. As such,
storms are expected to mainly percolate in intensity, with brief
instances of severe wind/hail possible at a storm's peak intensity.
Given the isolated, brief nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance
appears unlikely.

..Squitieri.. 07/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   49020409 49029985 48779885 48219836 47629839 47419841
            47169860 46609988 46590128 46710192 47070265 47510338
            48170391 48340408 49020409