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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or
two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas.
Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter
will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana,
southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight.

...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight...
Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this
morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough
moving eastward.  New thunderstorm development is expected through
the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast
TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak
surface cyclone.  Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s
beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging
from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across
southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are
likely with small breaks in the stratus.  Vertical shear profiles
will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective
bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature
(effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells.

The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a
gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into
tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across
LA/southern AR.  The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will
be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late
evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with
isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter).  With the gradual
change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind
damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight.

..Thompson/Moore.. 12/26/2024