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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east
Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the
ArkLaTex region.

...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to
transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks
Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface
cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the
ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass beco*ing
established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and
the ArkLaTex. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and
increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern
Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an
influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential
into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization
where clouds/convection persist. 

Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by
Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across
east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35,
but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor.

Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across
south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing
to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by
afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward
into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe
risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear,
highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing
segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail
will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing
during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes,
potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+).

Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend
to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a
low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of
Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity
overnight.

..Guyer.. 12/25/2024