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Mesoscale Discussion 2275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241947Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual uptick in convective intensity is anticipated
through the afternoon and early evening hours across central Texas.
Sporadic large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in the
short-term (next 1-3 hours) with watch issuance possible later this
afternoon as the severe threat beco*es more robust towards the TX
Coastal Plain.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, convection has been slowly
developing along a southeastward-moving cold front across northern
to central TX. Modest destabilization and unfavorable storm
mode/morphology have modulated convective intensities so far with
only 0.25 to 0.5 inch hail reported via mPING. Broken cloud cover
ahead of the front has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to
mid 70s, which is promoting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg
across central TX. New convective towers/cells are developing to the
southwest along the front into this more buoyant air mass, which
should favor more intense convection co*pared to what's been
observed in recent hours. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors
oriented along the front will promote upscale growth into a line
with time, but prior to this occurring a few more intense cells may
pose a large hail risk, possibly as large as 1.0-1.5 inch.
Convective intensity is expected to gradually increase through the
late afternoon and evening amid continued diurnal heating and
northward moisture flux. Watch issuance may eventually be needed
this afternoon as convection intensifies, though timing remains
uncertain.

..Moore/Hart.. 12/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32329728 32739679 32959636 33089601 33059570 32929554
            32739547 32499545 32249550 32019567 31829597 31569654
            31349708 31119764 31019809 30999845 31109867 31189879
            31299882 31459877 31659836 31869796 32089758 32329728