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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are likely over much of central into eastern Texas
late in the day and overnight, with isolated severe hail or gusty
winds.

...Synopsis...
An amplified and progressive upper trough will move across the West
Coast today, entering the Great Basin by evening. Strong cooling
aloft will acco*pany this system as it move toward UT and AZ by 12Z
Wednesday. To the east, a ridge over the Rockies will break down as
it pushes east into Plains late, with a developing shortwave trough
over the southern Plains as a speed max move out of NM.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes,
with lobes extending into the Southeast, and into the central
Plains. Meanwhile, a weak inverted trough will roughly parallel I-35
in TX during the day, with a cold front extending from eastern TX
toward the middle TX Coast by Wednesday morning. Southeast winds
ahead of this front/trough will result in destabilization, and
scattered thunderstorms late in the day and overnight.

...Central and eastern TX...
Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern
OK into AR this morning within a warm-advection zone. Additional
storms may develop southward into northern TX along the cold front,
aided by both cooling aloft and boundary-layer heating. Shear will
not be strong with this system, but lapse rates will steepen,
especially late in the day into central TX. Here, 1000-1500 J/kg
MUCAPE may develop, with storms likely to increase in coverage along
the front by around 00Z.

Overall, this setup appears to favor substantial coverage of
thunderstorms as moisture streams northwestward toward the front. A
cell or two may produce large hail along the southern flank of the
line, possibly near the Austin/San Antonio vicinity late in the day.
Otherwise, a linear mode is expected as the front continues east,
with perhaps locally strong wind gusts.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 12/24/2024