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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will weaken as it moves from East Texas to the
Southeast on Wednesday. Some remnant thunderstorms may persist early
in the period, but should weaken by the afternoon as mid-level
heights rise and forcing weakens. A second, stronger mid-level
trough will advance across the Southwest and beco*e a closed
mid-level low across the northeastern New Mexico vicinity by the end
of the period. Surface moisture will remain across far southeast
Texas on Wednesday night, but a strengthening low-level jet ahead of
the mid-level trough may result in some moistening in the 1 to 3 km
layer and some weak elevated instability by the end of the period
across West Texas into the Texas Panhandle. This co*bined with
forcing for ascent, may result in a few thunderstorms near 12Z
Thursday. No severe storms are anticipated due to the weak
instability.  

In addition, a mid-level shortwave trough will move onto the Oregon
coast after 06Z Thu. Forecast soundings ahead of the associated
surface front show mostly moist-adiabatic thermal profiles, but some
weak instability may be present and result in a few thunderstorms.

..Bentley.. 12/23/2024