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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move east-northeastward from the
Pacific Northwest on Tuesday into the northern Plains on Wednesday.
At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located in the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate to strong instability could
develop both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon along and near a moist
axis in the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes.
However, there is some uncertainty concerning instability. Some
model solutions forecast the stronger instability across the upper
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, while the other solutions develop
more instability on Wednesday across the western Great Lakes. The
magnitude and location of any severe threat from Tuesday into
Wednesday will depend upon which solutions are correct. Although the
environment could support a severe threat across parts of the region
on both Tuesday and Wednesday, there is substantial uncertainty
concerning if the severe threat can reach slight risk criteria. If
model solutions can beco*e more consistent concerning the magnitude
and distribtuion of instability, then a threat could area could need
to be added across parts of the region in later outlooks.

...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern Great
Lakes and into the Northeast on Thursday into Thursday night.
Further west, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
east-northeastward from the West Coast on Thursday and into northern
High Plains by Friday. Although the models are in decent agreement
concerning the timing of the upper-level trough, large differences
exist concerning the distribution of instability late in the week.
If a pocket of moderate instability develops in the northern Plains
on Friday, such as the ECMWF solution suggests, then an isolated
severe threat would be possible in the afternoon for parts of the
Dakotas and Minnesota. Also, a severe threat would be possible
further east on Saturday in parts of the Great Lakes region.
However, uncertainty is substantial at this range, and confidence
for any specific threat is low at this time.