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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

The synoptic pattern in the extended will consist of at least a
couple of shortwave troughs traversing the southern and central
CONUS. One such wave entering the Four Corners region Day
4/Wednesday will encourage lee surface cyclogenesis across
southeastern CO, and subsequently increasing west to southwesterly
surface flow over southern NM. However, both wind speeds and RH
should remain well below and above (respectively) critical
thresholds limiting the overall fire weather threat. Further east,
surface high pressure will continue to support cool/moist conditions
in conjunction with light surface winds. As this wave moves into the
Southern Plains Day 5/Thursday, some increasing downslope flow on
its backside will then develop across portions of West TX.

Another shortwave trough will quickly follow the aforementioned wave
Day 6/Friday, moving over the southern Rockies and eventually the
Southern Plains. An associated surface cyclone is expected to deepen
near the High Plains of TX as this occurs. Downslope westerlies at
the surface will acco*pany this low from central to southern NM,
into west TX. Although critical probabilities appear non-zero at
this time across West TX, considering breezy surface wind speeds, RH
and projected fuel receptiveness are not likely to promote a
significant fire weather threat at this time.

..Barnes.. 12/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...