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Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132...

Valid 160439Z - 160645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue after midnight
across far eastern Oklahoma, with isolated large hail and strong
wind gusts possible. The isolated severe threat could affect areas
of western Arkansas later tonight.  The need for a new weather watch
issuance seems unclear at this time.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Fort
Smith, Arkansas shows a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms in
far eastern Oklahoma. These storms are located along and to the east
of a northeast-to-southwest frontal boundary. To the southeast of
the boundary, a moist and unstable air mass is present with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F, and MLCAPE estimated to be in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms have remained isolated,
mainly due to a lack of large-scale ascent. However, water vapor
imagery suggests that a subtle shortwave trough is located in
north-central Oklahoma. Some models move a vorticity max
east-southeastward into the Ozarks tonight, which would result in a
gradual increase of convective coverage. In addition to the
instability, 0-6 km shear is strong from eastern Oklahoma into
western Arkansas, where the Fort Smith WSR-88D VWP has 50 to 55 kt
of 0-6 km shear. This co*bined with steep mid-level lapse rates will
support a severe threat with storms that that remain organized.
Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary
threats.

..Broyles.. 04/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   34619332 34699429 34759545 34929594 35599579 35919520
            35469315 34619332