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SPC MD 1616

SPC MD 1616

[html]MD 1616 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... FOR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
       
MD 1616 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507...

Valid 292233Z - 300000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk is forecast to gradually diminish across
southeastern Virginia and vicinity this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the most vigorous storms now
having moved largely offshore, trailing onshore only into far
northeastern North Carolina (Currituck County) just south of WW 507.
 Meanwhile to the west, a roughly west-to-east cluster of storms
continues moving across southeastern Virginia, though to the cool
side of a pronounced outflow surging southward toward the
Virginia/North Carolina border. 

The environment across the area remains marginally supportive of
severe weather, with moderate westerly flow aloft and 1500 to 2500
J/kg mixed-layer CAPE still indicated by RAP-based objective
analysis.  A such, limited/local risk for mainly gusty/damaging
winds may persist in the short term.  However, the continued/slow
decrease in risk that is ongoing may permit consideration of WW
cancellation prior to its scheduled 30/00Z expiration.

..Goss.. 07/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36537952 37047882 37507633 37837493 36907536 36117615
            36357726 36537952


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Source: SPC MD 1616 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1616.html)