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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A more active southern-stream pattern should evolve next week, with
several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier along with
some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas
to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. One such shortwave
trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across
east/southeast Texas on Tuesday/Day 5. Some severe risk could
materialize, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with
the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal
and isolated in nature.

An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be
into the Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as
a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts. This
could lead to some severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast
Texas and ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. However, there is
some uncertainty regarding moisture/destabilization given the
potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold
front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15%
outlook areas.