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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VA
AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for scattered damaging winds from strong to locally severe
gusts is greatest across parts of Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay
vicinity through early evening.

...20Z Update...
Overall forecast remains on track, with no changes needed to the
previous outlook. 

Highest coverage of severe thunderstorms is still expected across VA
and the Chesapeake Bay vicinity, where Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507
is currently in effect. Isolated damaging wind gusts are still
possible along the broad frontal zone stretching from VA back
southwestward into southern AR, then westward along the Red River,
and then back northwest in the TX Panhandle. Recently issued MCD
1611 discusses the short-term thunderstorm trends and potential over
southern AR, northwest MS, and extreme northern LA.

Isolated damaging wind gusts also remain possible across the
southern Great Basin (centered on Las Vegas) as well as over
northern MT, with the threat beginning later this afternoon and
continuing through the evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or
hail could also occur this afternoon and evening over portions of
the NE Panhandle.

..Mosier.. 07/29/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022/

...VA and Chesapeake Bay vicinity...
South of a slow-moving surface cold front, a southwest to
northeast-oriented zone of differential boundary-layer heating is
apparent from southwest VA to the Chesapeake. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along this corridor through
the afternoon. On the fringe of 35-40 kt mid-level westerlies in
conjunction with a pronounced buoyancy gradient, a mix of multicell
clusters and transient supercell structures are anticipated. Amid
weak mid-level lapse rates, strong to locally severe gusts producing
mainly tree damage should be the primary threat into early evening.

...Southern Appalachians to the Mid-South...
Scattered thunderstorms are again expected along the co*posite
outflow/differential heating corridors south of the quasi-stationary
surface front. Isolated strong/damaging downbursts will be possible
with water-loaded downdrafts on the fringe of modest mid-level
westerlies.

...Red River Valley and TX Panhandle...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
into mid-evening both along the surface cold front near the Red
River and in a post-frontal regime over the TX Panhandle. Deep-layer
shear will be weak across the region, especially for convection
along the front. The latter will be co*pensated by a deeply mixed
thermodynamic profile with hot temperatures south of the front.
Isolated strong/damaging downbursts will be possible with
water-loaded downdrafts. Farther west, slow-moving cells/clusters
may contain a threat of both isolated, marginally severe wind/hail.

...Southern Great Basin...
Around the southeast periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered
over northern CA, modest northeasterly flow of 15-20 kt will be
maintained over southern NV. Boundary-layer dewpoints are generally
in the low to mid 60s this morning and gradual clearing of clouds
will allow strong surface heating this afternoon with MLCAPE
increasing to 500-1500 J/kg. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form by late afternoon close to the NV/UT border, and
storms will subsequently spread south-southwestward on outflow into
southern NV and adjacent areas of southeast CA. Given the modest
buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates, isolated severe outflow
gusts up to around 70 mph will be possible with multicell clusters.

...Northern MT...
A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over southeast BC will drift east
across southern AB. Though moisture will be limited, deep
boundary-layer mixing will occur as surface temperatures warm
through the 90s. Weak ascent preceding the upper trough and weak
low-level convergence along a surface trough will support isolated
to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon. Though low to
mid-level flow will remain weak, deep inverted-v profiles will favor
isolated strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph.

...NE Panhandle vicinity...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the northern periphery of
the High Plains moisture plume during the late afternoon/early
evening. Adequate veering of the wind profile with height (weak
low-level southerlies to modest mid-level northwesterlies) will
support a short-duration and very isolated threat for marginally
severe hail/wind.