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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early
morning Wednesday across parts of the Red River into Western
Tennessee.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the Northwest will amplify across the
central states, with an embedded impulse moving into the Lower MO
Valley to TX Panhandle by early morning Wednesday. Mid-level height
falls and the southern periphery of west-southwesterlies above 40
kts at 500 mb will overspread the Red River to KY/TN. At the
surface, a front in the Ark-La-Tex to TN Valley will gradually
advance north. A minor surface cyclone should develop over the Lower
MO Valley, with a trailing cold front accelerating late as a surface
ridge builds down the High Plains.

...Mid-South...
Convective potential will be focused tonight, when large-scale
ascent increases ahead of the sharpening shortwave trough. Scattered
to eventually widespread thunderstorms are expected overnight into
early morning Wednesday. Deep-layer shear will initially be modest
within a unidirectional west-southwesterly profile, but will
increase late, especially along and east of the MS River. A pocket
of modest buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg should be
centered near the Ark-La-Tex. Progressively weaker surface-based
instability is expected with northeast extent, with uncertainty on
how far that may extend beyond western TN.

The western portion of sustained convection will offer potential for
small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. But these
storms should tend to get undercut during the early morning, given
the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector and the accelerating
cold front. A broadening southwest/northeast-oriented convective
line will probably evolve across parts of AR/TN. Hodograph curvature
should be adequate for a threat of a brief tornado and isolated
damaging gusts with the strongest embedded cells through the
pre-dawn hours.

..Grams/Lyons.. 12/17/2024