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Mesoscale Discussion 2270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Areas affected...from northeast Arkansas across the Missouri
Bootheel and toward the Ohio River

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161642Z - 161915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...We are monitoring convective trends along the immediate
cold front from far northeast Arkansas into western Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...A cold front currently extends from southwest IN toward
the MO Bootheel and into northern AR, with higher reflectivities
within a currently low-topped convective line. Southwest surface
winds continue to slowly bring relative warmth northward, with
minimal instability currently. VWPs show 0-1 km SRH of 200-300
m2/s2, with the strongest values over northern areas.

Lightning activity as well as higher echo tops currently exist over
northern AR and into the MO Bootheel where instability is more
favorable. With time, gradual destabilization within the narrow
pre-frontal zone, co*bined with low-level convergence, could result
in a marginal severe risk. This risk is clearly conditional, but a
small overlapping area of sufficient instability and favorable
low-level shear cold result in a brief/weak tornado or localized
damaging wind threat. At this time, a watch it not anticipated.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 12/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   37688814 37898778 37868748 37658743 37118787 36598831
            36028920 35798997 35579128 35659172 35889192 36059185
            36329062 36588976 37328860 37688814