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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTH TX
TO NORTHWEST AR...

...SUMMARY...
A low-end severe threat, primarily in the form of marginal hail, is
possible tonight across a portion of the Red River Valley into the
southern Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will progress from the northern Great Basin into
the Upper Midwest by tonight, with low-amplitude impulses moving
east across the Southwest. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it
tracks from the Black Hills to the Lake of the Woods vicinity. An
occluded/cold front will arc south into the Ozarks by tonight, with
trailing portion extending southwestward in OK/TX. 

...North TX to the Lower OH Valley...
A broad, low-level warm/moist conveyor will beco*e established from
the Lower Rio Grande Valley northeastward into the Lower OH Valley
through tonight. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging should preclude
appreciable thunderstorm development until late evening. A swath of
elevated storms is expected to blossom into the overnight, from
parts of eastern OK into the Lower OH Valley as weak mid-level
height falls overspread the gradually moistening corridor. The
southwest extent of this regime into far north TX should contain
surface-based parcels, although low-level lapse rates may be poor. 

Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles are progged across
much of the warm conveyor, ahead of the similarly oriented cold
front. M-shaped type hodographs are anticipated from southeast OK
southwestward, with weakness in the flow around 700 mb, where MUCAPE
appears largest from 1000-2000 J/kg. Non-FV3 members of the 00Z hr**
and available NSSL-MPAS runs indicate minimal 2-5 km UH signal.
Given these factors, storm mode will probably beco*e messy early in
the convective development life cycle. Still, conditional potential
exists, amid an adequate co*bo of effective bulk shear and MUCAPE,
for a few deeper updrafts to acquire transient rotation, with an
associated marginally severe hail threat. Where exactly that
transitions to purely small hail magnitudes is uncertain with
northeast extent, as mid-level lapse rates should be more muted and
buoyancy will be less.

..Grams/Lyons.. 12/15/2024