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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 131700Z - 141200Z

Dry and gusty conditions are possible in parts of southeast
Arizona/southwest New Mexico where portions of the mid-level jet
will enhance surface winds. The elevated area was expanded into
these areas. See the previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 12/13/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/

...Synopsis...
A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the
southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In
response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across
east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope
surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies.
Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible,
given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet.
The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will
support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of
elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting
factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal
ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting
some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear
favorable for more widespread critical concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...