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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Central States...
A shortwave trough over the central Great Plains will progress east
into the Midwest, dampening somewhat late in the period. Its
associated weak surface cyclone over eastern KS should undergo
cyclolysis by early Sunday as it moves across the Mid-MS Valley. 60s
surface dew points should generally be confined to east and south TX
through Saturday afternoon. Low-amplitude mid-level ridging should 
begin to overlap this richer moisture. Convection should largely
remain elevated within the downstream low-level warm conveyor. A
strong storm or two may be possible in between these two regimes in
the Sabine Valley vicinity, but weak mid-level lapse rates and
diminishing large-scale ascent should preclude an appreciable severe
risk. Overall thunderstorm coverage should diminish Saturday
evening/night. 

...Pacific Coast States...
A shortwave impulse embedded within a broader trough should progress
across northern CA through midday, before substantially dampening
over the northern Great Basin by Saturday night. Large-scale ascent
will be greatest from 12-18Z, including a strong low-level jet which
will yield enlarged hodograph curvature into the CA Central Valley.
But cool surface temperatures and negligible prospects for
surface-based instability should preclude a severe risk. While
sporadic lightning flashes may acco*pany elevated convection within
the warm conveyor early, the predominant isolated thunderstorm
threat should occur along the coast within a persistent onshore flow
regime and steepened lapse rates. The latter will diminish from
south to north on Saturday night as the trough moves farther inland.

..Grams.. 12/12/2024