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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern California...
Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS
on Monday. This in co*bination with an anonymously strong surface
high pressure over the Intermountain West will tighten offshore
pressure gradients across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking
around -8 to -9 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather
conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in
southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical
conditions are expected to increase in coverage late D2 - Monday and
continue into late D3 Tuesday - D4 Wednesday.  Pressure gradients
are forecast to peak on D3 - Tuesday, and 70-percent Critical
probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent
region was expanded to include mountain zones in San Luis Obispo
County. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions are likely Tuesday
morning and afternoon where single digit humidity overlaps stronger
winds (gusting 40 - 50 mph up to 60-70+ mph in the mountains) in
favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills in Ventura
and Los Angeles Counties. Fire weather concerns will linger into D4
- Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken
through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical
conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a
40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat
overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday.

As the western trough ejects across the Plains D3/Tuesday into D4 -
Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the
High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of
large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels
will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico,
but largely remain below Critical thresholds.

..Thornton.. 12/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...