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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Occasional damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail are
expected across parts of the Northeast this afternoon. Isolated wind
damage will also be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the
Ozarks, and marginally severe wind/hail may occur near the Front
Range in Colorado and across the High Plains.

...20Z Update...

...Northeast States...
The environment across the region is currently characterized by
abundant low-level moisture, moderate buoyancy, and moderate to
strong vertical shear. As such, the potential for severe
thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts, isolated hail, and/or
a brief tornado will continue for the next several hours across
eastern NY and much of western New England.

...Elsewhere...
The overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended
below) remains valid. Only change to the ongoing Marginal Risk areas
was to expand the Marginal southward into more of southeast OK and
adjacent west-central/central AR, where strong buoyancy could
contribute to a few water-loaded downbursts.

..Mosier.. 07/28/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022/

...Northeast States...
Initially isolated severe storms have already developed this morning
across western New York, and this risk should further
increase/develop eastward toward eastern New York and much of
western New England this afternoon. For additional short-term
details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1604.

A deep mid-level low over northern Ontario will continue generally
eastward toward northwest Quebec through tonight, with a
base-embedded mid/high-level speed max (50-60 kt at 500 mb) over the
Great Lakes transitioning east-northeastward. A related cold front
will also move eastward with further thunderstorm development
expected along/ahead of the front in addition to near a prefrontal
trough across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southeast New York
vicinity.

Mid-level lapse rates were observed to be weak in 12z observed
upper-air data, but cloud breaks and a general prevalence of upper
60s F surface dewpoints will support upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE as additional heating occurs. The aforementioned speed max
and tendency for strengthening winds aloft will maintain long and
relatively straight hodographs with 40-50 kt effective shear. This
will yield the possibility of a few supercells aside from more
prevalent clusters/linear segments, with damage as the most co*mon
hazard. The overall severe risk should tend to diminish this evening
as storms encounter a narrower warm sector and more marginally
unstable air mass across Maine.

...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic to the Ozarks this afternoon...
Have adjusted severe wind probabilities a bit northward near the
Midwest synoptic front where severe-adequate destabilization may
occur. Farther south, widely scattered thunderstorms should also
form in the zone of differential heating, and the strongest storms
could produce isolated wind damage with downbursts. Wind profiles
will be relatively weak in the low-mid levels along the southern
periphery of the early clouds/convection from northern
Arkansas/southern Missouri to western Tennessee. However, strong
surface heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the clouds
could support a few multicell storms/clusters capable of producing
isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts near and just after peak
heating.  

...Eastern Colorado and central/southern High Plains... 
Outflow with overnight convection has moved southwestward to the
Front Range in Colorado. Some clouds will linger across the eastern
Plains of Colorado, and vertical shear will be weaker with less
steep mid-level lapse rates co*pared to Wednesday afternoon.  Still,
boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F, pockets of surface heating, and
low-level upslope flow should support the development of scattered
thunderstorm clusters this afternoon near the Front Range. The
strongest storms will pose a threat for marginally severe hail and
isolated strong-severe outflow gusts.