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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely from East Texas into the
ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper low will swing southeast toward the upper Great Lakes
today, as an intense speed max moves southeastward across the upper
MS Valley and Midwest. Meanwhile, a belt of 35-40 kt 500 mb
westerlies will extend from northern MX across TX, with seasonably
cool temperatures aloft.

At the surface, a trough will exist near the TX Coast during day,
and will translate east/northeast across southern LA through
tonight. Moisture return with mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints
will extend from the middle to the upper TX Coast through 00Z, and
spread across southern LA overnight. The co*bination of increasing
moisture with sufficiently steep lapse rates aloft will favor
scattered thunderstorms within the low-level warm advection regime.

...Southeast TX toward the lower MS Valley...
Scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing
early this morning over parts of central TX, with more substantial
storms possible along a north-south confluence line over the western
Gulf of Mexico. While surface dewpoints are forecast to increase
over land, low-level lapse rates will remain poor due to limited
heating/cloud cover. 

Low-level SRH will increase within the warm advection zone, with
values over 300 m2/s2 briefly coincident with SBCAPE of 500-750
J/kg. This will occur over eastern TX during the afternoon, with
similar values into western LA during the evening. 

The primary mitigating factors to a tornado risk will be poor
low-level lapse rates (as moisture returns into the relatively cool
air mass), lack of any appreciable surface baroclinic zone, and
marginal instability. These factors are expected to render much of
the low-level SRH ineffective, reducing supercell potential over
land.

..Jewell/Thornton.. 12/04/2024