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SPC MD 498

SPC MD 498

[html]MD 0498 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST LA AND MS
       
MD 0498 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeast LA and MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152134Z - 152330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and perhaps locally
damaging wind gusts will persist for the next couple hours across
parts of northeast LA and MS. The isolated and brief nature of the
threat precludes watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations show a warm/moist airmass
across parts of the Gulf Coast, where warm advection has promoted
the development of isolated convection. VWPs and RAP mesoanalysis
show around 40-50 knots of deep-layer shear, which co*bined with
MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg has favored a couple discrete supercell
structures. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and generally straight
hodographs should primarily result in a risk of large hail and
perhaps isolated damaging wind gusts with the longer-lived storms.
As convection continues eastward, it should generally outpace the
warm sector prior to reaching Alabama. The localized and brief
nature of the threat precludes watch issuance.

..Weinman/Grams.. 04/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30728990 31469072 32459154 33059145 33609108 33879020
            33628897 32388866 31078868 30658889 30538936 30728990


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Source: SPC MD 498 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0498.html)