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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on
Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east
across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At
the same time, a trough over the Southwest will beco*e increasingly
cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and
southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain
confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as
a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough
across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream
westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low
over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the
Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the
eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. 

...Southeast TX into LA...
Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to
develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A
warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across
portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for
mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly
low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly
low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in
vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are
evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by
early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top
out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized
convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms
may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing
inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will
be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg
across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible
near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited.

..Leitman.. 12/03/2024