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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA....

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur from the Ozarks/Mid-South to
parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, as well as over parts of the
southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over
western Quebec early Friday morning. This cyclone is expected to
weaken throughout the period, devolving into an open wave while also
beco*ing more progressive. By early Saturday morning, this upper
trough will have moved into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. At the
same time, a shortwave trough is expected to rotate quickly through
the base of this large cyclone/trough, moving from the Upper Midwest
across the Upper and Lower Great Lakes regions and through the
Northeast. Farther west, an upper ridge covering much of the West
Coast will remain centered over northern CA, while subtropical
ridging persists from the southern Plains through the Southeast.

A frontal zone is expected to extend from east-central NM
east-northeastward into the Upper OH Valley early Friday morning.
Some modest southward/southeastward progression of this front is
anticipated as it is reinforced by a secondary surge of dry,
continental across the air from the northern/central Plains and
Upper MS Valley throughout the day.

...Ozark Plateau/Mid-South/TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will destabilize the air
mass in the vicinity of the frontal zone draped across the region.
Convergence along this boundary, augmented by modest large-scale
forcing for ascent as well as localized areas of lift near any
convectively enhanced vorticity maximums, should result in afternoon
thunderstorm development. Much of this development should be south
of the stronger mid-level flow, leading to an outflow-dominant
multicellular mode. Some loosely organized bowing line segments are
possible. 

The only exception is across central/northern VA and adjacent MD and
DE. In this region, thunderstorms should be coincident with at least
modest mid-level flow. This increased mid-level flow will correspond
with increasing dewpoints/buoyancy, increasing the chance for
organized storms capable of strong wind gusts. As a result, wind
probabilities were increased to 15%.

...Southern High Plains...
Overnight showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night into Friday
morning will likely reinforce the frontal zone expected to extend
from east-central NM through central OK. This showers and
thunderstorms should also reduce mid-level lapse rates, increase
cloudiness, and reduce overall buoyancy across areas north of the
front. Strong diurnal heating is still anticipated south of the
front, resulting in deep boundary layer mixing as well as air mass
destabilization. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development is anticipated over this region. High-based character of
these storms coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will result in
the potential for a few damaging wind gusts. Adjustments to this
risk area may be required in later outlook based on the position of
the front.

..Mosier.. 07/28/2022