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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...19z Update SOCAL...
No changes. Hi-res model guidance has co*e into better agreement on
the intensity of offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb across
southern CA. Weak to occasionally moderate offshore winds are
expected D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. Locally strong gusts to
15-25 mph and RH falling below 20% appears sufficient to support a
risk for elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of Ventura
and Los Angeles counties. While meteorological conditions should
intensify, recent rainfall of .1-0.25 inches and excellent humidity
recoveries have likely tempered area fuels somewhat. Warming and
drying over the next 24-48 hours will eventually allow fuels to
beco*e modestly receptive as ERCs increase. The strongest winds and
lowest humidity are likely over the interior higher terrain of
Ventura and Los Angeles counties, with gusts to 25 mph and RH as low
as 10-15%,this will support a locally elevated fire-weather risk
into early D3/Friday. See the prior discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 11/27/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will prevail across the eastern half the U.S.,
with surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures
overspreading much of the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). While quiescent
fire weather conditions are likely over most areas, portions of
southern California may see Elevated fire concerns during the day. A
surface pressure gradient, induced by widespread high pressure to
the east, will support locally strong offshore flow in
terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan
area. Specifically, guidance shows 15+ mph sustained offshore winds
amid 15-20 percent RH in and near the Ventura Valley area. Given
minimal precipitation accumulations, fuels should be at least
modestly receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating Elevated
highlights this outlook.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)