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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Through the first few days of the period, mid/upper-level ridging
will persist across the Deep South, TX and the Desert Southwest. 
Meanwhile the meridional branch of the ridge will shift eastward
from the Northwest across the northern Rockies and northern Plains
through day-5/1st-2nd.  As that occurs, slight reamplification is
expected of the longstanding mean troughing over the Great Lakes,
while troughing also moves across (and inland from) the coastal
Northwest.  The northwest-flow shortwave trough discussed in the
day-3 outlook may cross parts of the Great Lakes region days 4 and
5, aiding in convective potential near the nose of returning
low-level moisture.  However, timing/amplitude uncertainties already
apparent at day 3 only spread through days 4 and 5 in ensembles,
rendering predictability too low for a specific threat area either
day.

Thereafter, toward the middle-end of next week, shortwave details
crucial for daily convective/severe potential beco*e even more
nebulous.  However, large-scale ensemble consensus favors
higher-latitude, amplifying ridging over the central Plains to
Tidewater region. This may shunt severe potential northward, close
to or even north of the international border.  Frontal passage(s)
across New England during that time frame, south of a synoptic
cyclone over far northern QC, may be associated with some
convective/severe potential late next week.