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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough
that will be over eastern Canada and in the northeastern CONUS on
day 2 will move eastward and weaken.  This will leave behind
substantial height rises and slackening of mid/upper flow over the
central/northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region.  Upstream, a
shortwave trough should move east-southeastward from the Canadian
Rockies region to the eastern MT/ND region overnight.  Given the
nebulous origins of this perturbation -- with possible convective
enhancement from day-2 activity north of the international border,
its timing/intensity and associated low-level mass response are
quite uncertain.  Given that, and lack of more-robust low-level
moisture, any severe potential with thunder in the related northern
Plains warm-advection regime overnight appears too uncertain and
conditional for an outlook area at this time.

Meanwhile, messy mid/upper-level ridging will persist from the
Southeast across the southern Plains and southern Rockies, beco*ing
more defined over the Great Basin and northern CA to the interior
Pacific Northwest.  Amid associated weak deep-tropospheric flow, a
quasistationary low-level baroclinic zone will linger from the
Atlantic Tidewater region to the southern High Plains.  Again day 3,
a few convectively induced/reinforced vorticity maxima aloft may
help to focus mesobeta-scale convective potential somewhere in that
corridor, in tandem with rich boundary-layer moisture and strong
diurnal heating.  While isolated damaging downbursts cannot be ruled
out, organized severe potential appears minimal at this time frame.

..Edwards.. 07/28/2022