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Mesoscale Discussion 1598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Areas affected...Southern Missouri and northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 272015Z - 272215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is probable through the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Given the favorable thermodynamic
environment, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and
pose a damaging wind threat, though modest wind shear will limit the
overall severe threat and minimize watch potential.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, several congestus towers within an
expanding cumulus field across southern MO into northern AR have
exhibited a steady increase in vertical depth. This co*es as
temperatures warm into the mid/upper 90s and deeper boundary-layer
mixing removes inhibition. Robust thunderstorm development appears
probable within the hour as a weak cold front continues to approach
from the north/northwest and provides more focused ascent.
Thunderstorms will mature in an environment with 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates near 8-9 C/km. Forecast
soundings and latest upper-air analyses show some overlap of
favorable buoyancy with adequate deep-layer shear (around 25-30
knots) to support loose storm organization. Discrete cells, and
possibly one or more semi-organized clusters, will likely propagate
to the east across southern MO/northern AR this evening, posing a
risk of damaging winds given the favorable thermodynamic conditions.
Overall, the modest kinematics are expected to modulate the severe
potential and mitigate the need for a watch.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37089455 37519422 37979011 37678973 36578963 35799022
            36259413 36539452 37089455