SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
[html]SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...Central Plains...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made based on recent observations and trends in forecast guidance.
Gradient winds gusting to 40-50 mph are already being observed
across southern SD and will spread into NE by late morning as a
shallow nocturnal inversion (evident on the 12z LBF sounding) mixes
out. The greatest fire threat should be focused across southwest SD
into western NE where fuels are driest, but elevated to critical
fire weather conditions will likely spread into south-central NE as
well. However, recent 1+ inch rainfall amounts within the past 24
hours should limit fire potential with eastward extent.
...Western to central Nevada...
Localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are ongoing
this morning across far western NV within the downslope wind regime
in the lee of the central Sierra Nevada. Such conditions should
gradually beco*e more widespread into central NV by late afternoon
as diurnal heating promotes drying/mixing. Despite the wind/RH
conditions, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs remain below critical
thresholds to warrant risk highlights.
..Moore.. 11/20/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift
eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to
mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains
as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes
region.
...Central Plains...
Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most
probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher
gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent
South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20%
given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop
in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected
by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Source: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)