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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina...
An occluded cyclone over the Upper Midwest this morning will evolve
eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight. A related strong
mid/upper-level jet will overspread the OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas through the day, as a surface cold front
also advances eastward over these regions. While low-level moisture
will gradually increase across NC into the southern Mid-Atlantic by
early evening, poor lapse rates and limited daytime heating should
hinder the development of any more than weak instability. Still,
low-topped showers should still form along or just ahead of the cold
front across eastern OH into western PA and WV by late this
afternoon. It remains unclear whether this convection will beco*e
deep enough to foster lightning flashes, but enhanced low/mid-level
flow could still support some chance for gusty winds with this
activity. This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving
eastward over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight.
However, boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal
with eastward extent, which should limit the overall severe threat.

...c*astal Pacific Northwest...
A powerful upper cyclone off the coast of British Columbia should
continue to occlude today as it moves slowly away from the coast. In
the meantime, ascent associated with low-level warm advection and a
strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet is supporting low-topped
convection this morning across coastal portions of the Pacific
Northwest. With surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s
over land, instability will remain very limited (reference
negligible MUCAPE from 12Z observed soundings at UIL/SLE). Still,
some chance strong/gusty winds may exist with the ongoing convection
moving onshore given the strength of the low/mid-level flow (see
recent VWPs from KLGX). But, the scant instability should preclude
organized severe thunderstorms across coastal WA/OR today.

...Florida...
Convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has generally weakened as
it approaches the FL Gulf Coast and Keys early this morning. The
potential for appreciable destabilization over land today should
remain limited ahead of a cold front. While isolated lighting
flashes may still occur along/near the coast and parts of the Keys,
better thunderstorm potential will probably remain offshore from the
FL Peninsula.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/20/2024