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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through early
next week across the country. The upper trough currently in place
across the central U.S. will gradually shift east through the
remainder of the week with attendant rain chances overspreading much
of the Great Lakes and New England regions. Upper ridging appears
likely across the inter-mountain West/Plains in the wake of the
eastern trough, which will promote dry conditions but relatively
benign low-level gradient winds. Along the West Coast, the
intensifying low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain
widespread rain/snow chances through the end of the week before
gradually de-amplifying and shifting inland. Most regions are
expected to see some degree of precipitation by the weekend, which
will mitigate fuel/fire concerns. 

The only exceptions to this will be the Four Corners and the
southern to central Plains where the probability for wetting
rainfall appears fairly low. Some fuel drying is anticipated across
these regions, though recent heavy rain across the Plains will
require multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions to support
a fire concern. Long-range ensemble guidance hints that a breakdown
of the upper ridge is likely by early next week, which may support
dry/windy conditions across the Four Corners/southern Plains as
shortwave troughs propagate eastward within the mean zonal flow
regime. However, confidence in any fire concern is very low at this
range.

..Moore.. 11/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...