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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES...AND FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts and hail are possible over
portions of the Northeast, as well as from the Ozarks eastward
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

...Synopsis...
A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period
centered over north-central Ontario before drifting slightly
southeastward throughout the period. Shortwave troughs will continue
to rotate around this cyclone, including one that is expected to
progress from the Upper Great Lakes eastward through southern
Ontario into the Northeast. 

At the surface, an outflow-reinforced front will likely extend from
a low over northwest TX northeastward into the Mid MS Valley. This
front then transitions to a more traditional, progressive cold
front, stretching from the Mid MS Valley northeastward into far
western NY and then back northward to a triple point near the
central Ontario/Quebec border intersection. This front is expected
to move eastward/southeastward through the Northeast while the
portion of the front back west over the Plains remains largely
stationary. 

...Northeast...
The air mass preceding the front across the Northeast will likely be
characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and modest
buoyancy, and thunderstorm development is anticipated along and
ahead of the front as it moves through the region. A belt of
enhanced mid-level flow is expected to move into the region on
Thursday as well, although the strongest flow will likely lag behind
the cold front. Even so, enough mid-level flow should be present to
support 30 to 40 kt of deep-layer vertical shear. These
environmental conditions will support the potential for a few more
organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and/or isolated
hail. Southerly low-level flow through the Champlain Valley vicinity
eastward across NH and western/central MA could result in enough
low-level veering for a brief tornado or two, particularly with any
discrete storms ahead of the primary line.

...Ozark Plateau...Mid MS Valley...TN/OH Valley...
Strong diurnal heating in the presence of abundant low-level
moisture is expected to result in diurnal destabilization in the
vicinity of the front stretch from the Ozarks into the OH Valley.
Convergence along the front coupled with modest large-scale ascent
attendant to a weak (potentially stronger if convective enhancement
materializes) should result in numerous thunderstorms across the
region. Vertical shear will be weak, with a mostly multicellular
mode anticipated, but a few damaging water-loaded downbursts are
possible. Additionally, despite relatively poor lapse rates, the
overall strength of the instability could still result in isolated
instances of hail.

..Mosier.. 07/27/2022