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Mesoscale Discussion 2230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Areas affected...parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 709...

Valid 180934Z - 181130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 709
continues.

SUMMARY...The remaining valid portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
709 may be allowed to expire at 4 AM CST, however trends will
continue to be monitored for the possibility of intensifying
thunderstorm development across the Hill Country into central Texas
after daybreak.

DISCUSSION...As a 90+ kt 500 mb jet streak continues to nose across
the Pecos Valley through the Texas South Plains, stronger convection
supported by forcing beneath the more strongly difluent mid/upper
flow appears likely to continue to spread across the Red River
Valley vicinity through daybreak.  Although the southern limit of
this forcing remains a bit unclear, severe weather potential south
of Tornado Watch 710 appears low in the near term.  However, it is
possible that forcing along the surging cold front could support
intensifying thunderstorm development near/east of the I-35 corridor
of central Texas after daybreak, and trends will need to continue to
be monitored for the possibility of a new severe weather watch.

..Kerr.. 11/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31860056 32069988 32109864 32149797 30449809 29899861
            29530048 29710117 31860056