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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the
extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on
D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast
to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours.
Widespread rain chances will acco*pany this features as it shifts
northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow
chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through
early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive
to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated
from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where
ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting
precipitation.

...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast...
Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker
surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon
to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show
low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore
pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of
seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result,
confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues
to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient
will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this
period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence
in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into
D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk
area.

...D3/Tue - Central High Plains...
The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently
over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley
as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are
expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the
tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely.
Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some
degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though
an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions.
However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through
mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The
potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time
given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but
trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern.

..Moore.. 11/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)