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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe
gusts and a few tornadoes.

...20Z Update...

...Southern Plains...
General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid,
with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to
continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more
northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early
tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will acco*pany this system,
with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into
southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will
develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching
from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. 

Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system.
Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and
southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in
the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will
continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening,
ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface
analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in
north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans
Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for
surface low progress late this evening and overnight. 

A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated,
beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this
band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the
surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic
fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the
mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward
momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite
the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability
for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z
to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will acco*pany this line as well, with
the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the
greatest severe-wind threat.

..Mosier.. 11/17/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough
over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  A mid-level vorticity maximum near the
middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua
by mid evening while the larger-scale trough beco*es negatively
tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains.  In
the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually
evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the
northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. 
Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf
will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward
across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High
Plains tonight.  An attendant warm frontal zone will advance
northward from north TX into OK late.  

...Southern Great Plains...
The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately
moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. 
The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper
60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the
Metroplex and areas south/southeast.  Moisture advection will
contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across
parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite
considerable cloud cover through the day.  As an intense 100-kt
500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight,
large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered
thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity
and beco*ing more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection
attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight.  Model guidance
indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector.
A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX
and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low
track.  As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts
will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the
intense flow expected to develop.  It remains uncertain if cellular
development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely
maintained in parts of the larger band of storms.  Nonetheless,
elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered
severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall
line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward
into southwest OK late.