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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

Fire weather concerns remain likely along portions of the New
England late this weekend and the southern California coast into the
middle portions of the upco*ing work week. Long-range guidance
continues to depict an active upper-level regime heading into next
week, characterized by progressive, potentially high-amplitude,
waves. The upper trough currently over the western CONUS is forecast
to gradually deepen over the next 48 hours before ejecting into the
Plains late this weekend. Strong surface winds will acco*pany
widespread precipitation chances across the Plains and Midwest as
this occurs. These rain chances, followed by a continental/cold air
intrusion across the central U.S. early next week, will limit fire
concerns for much of the country. Fire concerns will likely be
confined to the New England and southern CA coasts where fuels
remain dry. 

...D3/Sunday - New England...
The offshore flow regime currently in place across the New England
region is expected to persist through late D3/Sunday. However, winds
are expected to gradually diminish through the D3 period as the
surface low currently off the East Coast migrates further into the
Atlantic and a surface high builds across the eastern third of the
country. Despite weakening gradient winds, very dry conditions and
dry fuels are expected to linger for the next several days, and
should support some fire concerns during the afternoon hours when
boundary-layer mixing will support occasional gusts up to 15-20 mph.

...D5/Tue to D6/Wed - southern CA Coast...
The signal for an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast
persists in latest long-range ensemble guidance for the D5/Tue to
D6/Wed period. However, the magnitude of the expected surface high
across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies has steadily
trended down in nearly all GEFS/ECENS ensemble members over the past
48 hours. Similarly, deterministic DAG-LAX pressure gradient
forecasts have trended towards elevated, rather than critical,
thresholds. These trends indicate that offshore winds may not be
quite as intense as previously anticipated; however, the consistent
nature of the signal over the past few days suggests that a fire
weather concern will likely emerge even if the intensity of the
winds is less certain at this time. For this reason, the 40% risk
probability highlights are maintained, and further upgrades to
higher probabilities remain possible if guidance trends back towards
an unseasonably strong surface high (1040-1045 mb) and a more
intense offshore pressure gradient.

..Moore.. 11/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...