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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The positively tilted mid/upper trough discussed in the day-3
outlook will depart the northeastern CONUS and eastern Canada on
day-4/30th-31st.  Meanwhile, ridging aloft will intensify gradually
again from the Southeast across the southern Plains to the Great
Basin and central Rockies.  A cold front should begin the period
from the Mid-Atlantic region into the southern Appalachians,
beco*ing quasistationary westward across the OK/TX Panhandle region.
While isolated, marginal and localized severe potential may exist
near this front on day 4, convection should be removed from the
stronger flow aloft, evidencing disorganization overall. 

Through days 5-8, ridging aloft should build over the Rocky Mountain
States, with amplifying troughing again over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and a slow-moving trough entering the Northwest CONUS from
the Pacific.  Following the dissipation of the Plains segment of the
day-4 frontal zone, low-level moisture will return gradually toward
areas of stronger northwest flow over the northern Plains, Missouri
Valley, southern Upper Great Lakes, and mid/upper Mississippi Valley
regions.  Some severe potential may develop in those areas late this
weekend into early next week.  However, important shortwave details,
and their surface effects, involve too much ensemble spread to focus
specific outlook areas of 15% or greater unconditional probability
at this time.