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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

The primary change for this update was to remove portions of NJ from
the Elevated risk area. Latest surface observations show RH values
between 30-40%, but higher dewpoint values upstream suggest RH
values should remain in this range - if not see some improvement as
suggested by morning guidance - through the afternoon. Additionally,
this region should remain within a low to mid-level deformation zone
that will limit gust potential. Further northeast into New England,
very dry conditions remain likely with gusts up to 20 mph likely by
early afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. Forecast concerns
across AZ/NM remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion
below.

..Moore.. 11/15/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move
off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep
upper trough will progress eastward.

...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic...
Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the
lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry
and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur
as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon.

...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico...
Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead
to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears
possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may
occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk
of large fires.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...