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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

The upper-level pattern is forecast to be active across the CONUS
during the extended period.  On Saturday, the pattern will amplify
as a trough deepens over the West, and a ridge builds over the
eastern CONUS.  The trough and associated surface low pressure
system will advance northward over the central CONUS bringing
precipitation through Tuesday before slowly meandering eastward on
Wednesday and Thursday.  Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft over
the West on Tuesday and Wednesday will promote surface high
development over the Great Basin, favoring offshore flow for
southern California.

...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - New England...
Dry, offshore flow will continue into the weekend over much of New
England, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire-weather
conditions. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (highs in
the upper 50s/lower 60s F), afternoon RH values are forecast to fall
around or below critical thresholds (30%) across much of the area. 
While vertical mixing in the PBL may be limited, strong
northwesterly flow aloft will promote strong gust potential,
especially for areas that are able to mix more deeply than forecast.
Given the dry fuels (ERC values above the 90th percentile) across
the region, fire weather concerns will peak on Saturday afternoon
and linger into Sunday afternoon.

...D6/Tue to D7/Wed - Southern California...
Medium-range ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for an
offshore wind event across southern California on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show reasonably good
agreement in a strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across
the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong
upper trough. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient (likely
peaking Wednesday morning) should support critical downslope winds
in terrain-favored areas of southern California. Given antecedent
receptive fuels (as evident by the ongoing large fire in Ventura
County) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire
weather conditions appear possible during the D6/Tue to D7/Wed
period.

..Jirak.. 11/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...