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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and
Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts
of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized
severe potential appears relatively low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the
Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before
continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed
mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper
low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level
flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast
coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to
deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas.

At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the
Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over
the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast,
fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale
forcing for ascent. 

...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle...
A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early
Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from
this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending
east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to
beco*e more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool
airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and
associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this
overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA.
The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while
also remaining displaced north of the warm sector.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of
the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution
described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing
coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few
stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential
appears too low to introduce any probabilities.

...c*astal Carolinas... 
Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress
eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing
northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a
developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will
precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating
slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this
moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates,
with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective
inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning.
Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be
near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger
scale forcing, helping to overco*e any remaining convective
inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout
the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could beco*e more
organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain
too low to introduce any probabilities.

..Mosier.. 11/13/2024