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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 131700Z - 141200Z

...Mid-Atlantic/New England
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations
show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader
Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a
surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent
fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH
values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC
observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded
into areas with recent fire activity. 

...West Virginia...
Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of
the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually beco*e
more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of
elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher
terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac
Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National
Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated
conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high
suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should
remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase
near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the
southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH
minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting
uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions.
While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld
due to coverage concerns.

..Moore.. 11/13/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/

...Synopsis...
...Northeast/New England...
Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the
northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity
reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10
mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with
this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken
through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. 

...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West
Virginia-Virginia Border...
Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring
areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the
Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border.
Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap
with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall
will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...