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Mesoscale Discussion 1595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Areas affected...portions of western/central NE...far northwest KS
and northeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261937Z - 262230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from
late afternoon into early evening. Sporadic strong gusts and hail
will be possible with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Areas of cloud cover has limited heating somewhat
across portions of southwest into central NE with temperatures
mainly in the mid/upper 70s. Other areas have seen greater heating
under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures have
warmed well into the 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. A plume of
steeper lapse rates extends across CO into NE, aiding in moderate
destabilization across the region. Increasing, vertically developing
cumulus has been noted along and ahead of the surface cold front
extending from southwest NE into north-central NE early this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface boundary in NE, as well as in moist upslope flow across
northeast CO over the next couple hours. Effective shear magnitudes
around 30-45 kt will favor organized supercells posing some threat
for hail and strong gusts. 

Stronger large-scale ascent will remain north of the region, with
the front being the main focus for development later this
afternoon/evening. Areas of cloud cover may further limit convective
coverage. While a couple of severe storms appear likely, the overall
threat appears to be limited in coverage, and in longevity of
stronger cells. As such, a watch is not expected at this time, but
convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41289781 40549918 40209988 39550162 39280232 39220331
            39300427 39640486 39870491 40100479 41100402 41700292
            42310112 42789923 42839830 42759809 42579785 42219756
            41769737 41499749 41289781