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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far
southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly acco*panied by some risk
for hail and gusty winds.

...20Z Update...
The primary change to this outlook was to expand Marginal Risk
probabilities northward into portions of far southwestern KS. Here,
guidance consensus depicts 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated
hodographs, which may support an instance or two of marginally
severe hail with the more persistent, discrete updrafts that can
form. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 11/12/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at
midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains
tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late
today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains
dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that
will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight.
Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur
north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface
dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F
into this evening.

It still appears likely that deep convective potential across
northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain
limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and
a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development
will beco*e more probable after sunset as lift associated with a
strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front
overtakes the lee trough.

While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000
J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be
the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain
slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also
exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and
time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly
quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts
of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning.