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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper
levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the
southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this
period.  Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive
belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to
approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast.

Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently
emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across
the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an
approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian
Prairies.  This may be acco*panied by appreciable surface
cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by
late tonight.  While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a
moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio
Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate
that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual
cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through
much of the evolving warm sector.

...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity...
South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the
north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that
low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer
destabilization across northern Mississippi through western
Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. 
This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may
exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying
thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon.  Beneath 35-50
kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear
may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do
not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak
low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk
for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024