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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill
Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening.
The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is
expected to be across North Texas.

...20Z Update...
Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on
the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and
intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North
Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that
region.

..Wendt.. 11/08/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/

...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma...
Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain co*mon across
the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the
Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with
warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near
70 F. 

Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms
within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far
north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into
southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface
low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered
convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of
severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon.

Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and
potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon
farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any
sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to
surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting
with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This
includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well
as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is
expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across
the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central
toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening,
with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight.