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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added for portions of
northern California into southwest Oregon. Latest objective analysis
showed a small mid-level impulse traversing the California coastline
while moving northward. Mainly showers have acco*panied this impulse
in central California, though a couple of lightning flashes were
also noted. This impulse is expected to continue moving northward
through the day and approach a plume of marginal buoyancy currently
off of the southwest Oregon coastline. The approach of this impulse,
in tandem with diurnal heating and terrain-induced lift may support
the development of a dry thunderstorm or two across far northern
parts of the Sacramento Valley into the southern Cascades
(especially the windward side). While confidence in 10+ percent
coverage remains quite low, the very high receptiveness of fuels to
wildfire spread suggests that low-probability but high-impact
wildfire-start potential exists this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with
only slight changes made to the Elevated highlights in the southern
Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/26/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022/

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over parts of
northwest OK this afternoon, as 15 mph sustained southerly surface
winds (with higher gusts) develop in response to a weak surface low
over the area. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20 percent
minimum RH and highly receptive fuels warrant the Elevated
highlights -- especially given ongoing fires over the area.

Over the Intermountain West/Northern Great Basin, a belt of moderate
northwesterly midlevel flow and hot/dry boundary-layer conditions
could support spotty elevated fire-weather conditions during the
afternoon. This will especially be the case from southeast OR
eastward across southern ID into southwest WY. However, these
conditions look too localized/marginal for highlights. In addition,
an isolated high-based thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along
the Cascades from far north-central CA into south-central OR. If
this activity can develop, an isolated lightning-induced ignition
would be possible owing to very dry fuels across the area. With that
said, confidence in the development of any more than a storm or two
is too low for dry thunderstorm highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...